World Association of International Studies -- WAIS

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Location: Bratislava, EU, Slovakia

Monday, July 19, 2004

FW: Putin and Bush

Bill Ratliff asked Cameron Sawyer what he thought about Putin's comments on Bush. From Moscow, Cameron replies: "
I believe that Putin is just being his wily self -- staking out an independent line, preserving what remnants of great power status he can, while cultivating good relations with everyone.  Putin has been vastly more successful than Schroeder or Chirac in the Iraq affair -- he harshly criticized the American decision to go to war and did what he could to prevent it, improved relations with Germany and France, and all without burning any bridges to the U.S.  Quite a trick, I would say -- Putin came out quite a winner.  Schroeder and Chirac were big losers -- failed to prevent the war, and seriously damaged relations with the U.S.  As a result of all this, the Russians are poised to get all kinds of goodies in Iraq, unlike the French and Germans.  Russia has a lot at stake in Iraq -- Russia is one of Iraq's biggest creditors and has lots of economic interests like power plant contracts, oil field concessions, etc.  Lastly, don't forget that Russia, as a major target of Islamic terrorism, is also a very interested party in the war on terrorism, and wants to be a partner, without, however, giving up its own strategic interests, which are not always in harmony with America's.
 
Putin badly wants Bush to protect Russian interests in Iraq.  Putin also wants good relations with the U.S., which is a more compatible trading partner for Russia than the semi-socialist EU.  Why shouldn't he help Bush?  To me it seems quite logical.  Putin is a much more skillful diplomat than Schroeder and Chirac, with their temper tantrums.  Putin is just doing what's best for Russia.  He can't stop the invasion now, so instead of sulking, he's just trying to get the best deal possible, and he seems to be making out pretty well.
 
For a Russian take on all this, see Pavel Felgenhauer's Moscow Times piece from a couple days ago: http://www.moscowtimes.ru/stories/2004/06/22/008.html.  Felgenhauer is an interesting but eccentric commentator, and you shouldn't think his views representative, but there are a fair number of Russians who think like that.  The widespread hatred of Bush in Western Europe is less prevalent in Russia, where the current political establishment is basically Reaganite.  And there is a great deal of press in Russia about the nasty election campaign against Bush".