VENEZUELA; Chavez, the referrendum, & Foreign Capital

Jon Kofas writes: "On Sunday, August 15, while the world will be preoccupied with the Olympic games, Venezuelan voters will cast their ballot on whether to recall the controversial leftist-populist president Hugo Chavez. The media in this country, segments of the European and Latin American press have treated Chavez as an unstable dictator. He came to the political scene in 1992 amid a global recession. President Carlos Andres Perez accepted IMF austerity which only exacerbated the recession and lowered living standards among workers and the lower middle class. Helping to found the Bolivarian Revolutionary Movement, colonel Chavez was a critic of Venezuela's oligarchy and the political elites that went along with the IMF catering to foreign capital. When he won the election in 1998, he promised social, political, and economic reform. Like many populists, Chavez freely engages in hyperbolic rhetoric, though his actions are not very different than any nationalist politician. Foreign companies are not worried if he wins this Sunday, though they would not mind at all if he were out of the picture for good. Venezuela needs foreign capital (loans & direct investment), and Chavez will not do anything to jeopardize the fragile economy.

I am predicting a clear victory for him, followed by lower oil prices on Monday in world markets. My Argentinian and Chilean academic friends down there think that the country needs a break from his type of politics and that his defeat will result in a better economy. That he is still in power, despite attempts to get rid of him by domestic and foreign elements is a great testament to the OAS leadership, especially Mexico & Chile that disagreed with the Bush administration on the process of transition".

RH:  We shall see. Will Chavez fare better than his friend Fidel Castro?

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